US AI Overwatch Act pushes Congress into AI chip export control

The AI Overwatch Act marks a notable escalation in the geopolitics of compute. Instead of leaving advanced GPU exports solely to executive‑branch export controls, Congress is attempting to give itself explicit veto power over shipments of Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell lines and AMD’s MI325X to “countries of concern” such as China, Russia and Iran. The bill also envisions a 30‑day review window and the ability to unwind existing licenses. From an AGI‑race perspective, this further entrenches high‑end AI compute as a strategic asset on par with weapons systems. U.S. lawmakers are saying, in effect, that training‑grade GPUs are too important to be governed only by shifting administration policy. That could slow Chinese access to frontier‑class chips, forcing greater reliance on domestic alternatives and larger clusters of less capable parts. In the near term, it likely advantages U.S. and allied labs who retain better access to top silicon. The longer‑term picture is more complex. Aggressive export controls can incentivize adversaries to over‑invest in indigenous chip design, packaging, and energy infrastructure, potentially seeding a more resilient rival ecosystem. At the same time, allowing “trusted U.S. persons” to operate GPUs abroad as a service hints at a future where compute, not just models, is rented under U.S. jurisdiction—another lever in the global AGI power balance.